Hong defeating Crowley by 2-to-1 ratio in polling despite Milwaukee county executive’s efforts

David Crowley is surging in recent polling, but it looks like it is too little too late for the Milwaukee county executive. 

Crowley has been out on the campaign trail since reentering the race for governor, including a stop at Wisconsin State Fair alongside Gov. Tony Evers, in hopes that Tuesday’s election will be closer than what the polls predict. 

State Navigate released a poll on Aug 7, four days before Election Day showing Francesca Hong leading the field at 44%, Crowley at 22%, Kelda Roys at 11% and Joel Brennan at 5%. 

According to the poll, Hong is also defeating Crowley by a 2-to-1 ratio in Milwaukee County, the territory that Crowley governs. Hong also defeated Crowley by 4% among respondents in the 414 area code. 

Crowley is hopeful the polling is wrong and the public will answer with votes and potentially it ends up being closer than expected, like it was in Michigan earlier this week. He picked up notable endorsements, including Rep. Gwen Moore, the Congressional Black Caucus, and union leaders. 

Crowley needs Milwaukee to show up for him, but the polling results stunts those efforts. Black women have been the strongest voting bloc for many Democrats across the U.S. Similarly, that is much of Crowley’s starting base, let alone appealing to rural Wisconsin voters. 

The poll was conducted Aug. 3 to 6 among 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters across Wisconsin. After Mandela Barnes dropped out, his supporters were split on who to turn to next, but Crowley picked up the most votes followed by Hong close behind, according to the poll. 

A lot of uniting will need to happen in the Wisconsin Democratic Party after Election Day because many officials drew a clear line in the sand against the democratic socialist in the race. 

Hong has refused to attack any opponent directly, but that hasn’t stopped opponents and surrogates from attacking her. Evers went after her multiple times earlier this week, saying she’s not focused on the issues.

If Hong soars to victory on Tuesday, polling suggests that 77% of Crowley voters would support her in a general election, 9% would vote for Republican Tom Tiffany. 

In a swing state like Wisconsin, every vote matters. And unfortunately, some of those votes have already been nullified. 

Amid nationwide scrutiny of elections caused by President Donald Trump’s Big Lie that he won the 2020 presidential election, Wisconsin also entered the debate after one of the wildest Democratic primary elections in history led to the public casting votes for candidates who have since dropped out. 

Just in the State Navigate poll alone, multiple respondents admitted to voting already for someone who dropped out. Wisconsin doesn’t allow recasting of ballots. 

If Hong is elected the Democratic nominee on Tuesday, it sets up a polarizing battle between the 37-year-old chef and a 68-year-old congressman. 

Republicans are running ads for Hong and admitting online that they will vote for Hong in the primary because they want her to be nominee believing it will be easier to defeat her than anyone else. Crowley notes this fact while on the campaign trail.

Tiffany is one of the most conservative members of Congress. His extreme ideas put him out of place with others in his own party. 

Hong faces similar scrutiny from within, but if she wins, the Democratic base will be forced to rally around her and turn out the vote or live with Tiffany as governor.  

If elected, Hong would be the first socialist governor in U.S. history, and the first female and Asian-American (Korean) governor in state history.